Analysis: Verstappen signs to 2030, and Lawson’s options narrow

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Words: Richard Edwards
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Published 20 August 2026

Max Verstappen has signed a contract extension keeping him at Red Bull Racing until the end of 2030, ending months of speculation days before Liam Lawson stands in for the team at Zandvoort.

His previous contract ran to 2028, but a poor start to the new regulations era had activated a release clause and prompted links with McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari before all three committed to their existing drivers. The extension signals Verstappen’s belief that Red Bull under Laurent Mekies will return to winning form.

For Lawson, the announcement removes the best remaining route back to the senior team. With Verstappen signed for four more seasons, the only Red Bull Racing seat that can open is Isack Hadjar’s, and Red Bull has chosen Hadjar over Lawson twice in as many years. The scenario in which Verstappen left and Red Bull needed two drivers, with Lawson the obvious internal candidate, is gone.

Lawson steps in for Hadjar this weekend.

It has been a bad week for Lawson’s options elsewhere too. Williams confirmed Carlos Sainz on a new multi-year contracton Wednesday, completing its 2027 line-up a day after extending Alex Albon. Williams has held long-term interest in Lawson, having approached Red Bull about him in 2024 when it was replacing Logan Sargeant, and with Sainz’s future unresolved a Lawson move to Grove was a live scenario. It is now a 2028 conversation at best.

Pressure is also building at Racing Bulls itself. Formula 2 championship leader Nikola Tsolov has been linked with a Racing Bulls promotion for 2027, and while the team denies anything is decided, team principal Alan Permane calls the Bulgarian the next in line. Rookie teammate Arvid Lindblad trails Lawson by 20 points but is already close to him on pure pace.

Lawson’s form deserves a better market. He is the best-placed driver outside the top four teams at the summer break, with 43 of Racing Bulls’ 66 points in his strongest season yet. Beyond the Red Bull system, Audi is leaning towards retaining Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto, and Cadillac has confirmed Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas. That leaves Alpine, Haas and the (incredibly unlikely) second Mercedes seat among the realistic vacancies, along with keeping the Racing Bulls drive he already has.

Which makes this weekend’s stand-in drive for the injured Hadjar well timed. Verstappen’s signature settles Red Bull’s plans for years, so a strong Zandvoort performance matters most to the teams still holding open seats for 2027.