Words: Andrew Sluys
Published 10 March 2026
An AA advisor has warned petrol prices across New Zealand could reach $4 per litre if the war in the Middle East continues.
Speaking to Stuff, AA Senior Policy Advisor Terry Collins, warned of this spike following the international price hikes on Brent crude.
It spiked by over 17 per cent yesterday, hitting a peak of US$92.69. It then jumped again this morning to US$116.18.
A key factor for these price spikes is the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a significant shipping route linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
“If they shut that, that means we’ve only got 80 per cent of the world’s oil available at any one time,” Collins said.
“And the laws of supply and demand mean prices will go up.
“What’s happening is this conflict now looks like it’s going to last much longer. It’ll be a matter of months, not weeks.
“Four years ago in March, when the Russian and Ukrainian war was at its peak, we were seeing oil prices of US$110 a barrel. Back in 2008 we saw prices of US$147 a barrel. Some oil ministers in the Gulf region are predicting prices that could exceed that.”
Collins predicts that if prices shoot over US$150 per barrel, 91 octane petrol in New Zealand will jump to between $3.50, and even up to $4 per litre in some cases.
Nicola Willis, New Zealand’s Minister of Finance and Economic Growth explained how our country’s fuel stocks are at a reasonable level currently.
“I wish to first assure you current events do not pose an imminent challenge to New Zealand’s fuel security,” said Willis.
“We have a national fuel plan in place, and government agencies have activated work with fuel companies, distributors, and retailers to coordinate our response.
“The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has published updates on its website. These show that in addition to up to 28 days of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel already in the country, there are a further 29 days of fuel en route on ships that have entered New Zealand’s territorial waters.”
